For peace to have any genuine chance in the war-torn DRC, one thing is clear: Tshisekedi must finally do what he’s failed to do from the beginning – be serious.
From day one, the Congolese leader has shown a pattern of breaking his promises and failing to live up to his commitments. His record has been marked by a lack of sincerity, especially when it comes to addressing the neutralisation of the genocidal FDLR forces and engaging in meaningful negotiations with the Congolese political-military movement M23.
Instead of taking any real action, Tshisekedi has wasted years of diplomatic efforts, throwing away time and sabotaging initiatives by the African Union, EAC, and SADC, who all begged him to solve the eastern crisis through dialogue. And now? He finds himself back at square one, being handed yet another opportunity for peace—the very dialogue he should have seized years ago if he had ever bothered to take anything seriously.
Recently, the Trump administration brokered a “declaration of principles” between Rwanda and Tshisekedi’s regime, setting the stage for a potential peace agreement for May 2. Qatar also facilitated three weeks of negotiations between the Tshisekedi regime and M23, resulting in a truce.
These two initiatives? They’re his last hope, but they’re also the sword of Damocles hanging over his head. If these talks fail, Tshisekedi is done. He’ll never defeat the M23/AFC, let alone recover any lost territory. The military power is squarely in the hands of M23/AFC, and they’ve proven they can dictate the terms—on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.
Ultimately, let’s face facts—without the intervention of the United States and Qatar, whose economic interests are increasingly tied to the situation as Tshisekedi’s regime weakens, these talks would have never made it this far. Will Tshisekedi seize this last chance for peace? History suggests otherwise. The man has never been serious, and it would take a miracle—a once-in-a-lifetime, never-seen-again kind of miracle—for him to start now.
ellenkampire