Tension in Kinshasa as Tshisekedi runs out of options everywhere

Kinshasa is standing on a knife-edge. After months of denials, obfuscation, and diplomatic wrangling, the Tshisekedi regime has no choice but to sign parallel peace instruments: one in Doha with the  AFC/M23, and another with neighbouring Rwanda tied to the Washington process.

For months, Congolese ruler Felix Tshisekedi and his officials have tried to downplay the existence and influence of AFC/M23. The regime mouthpiece Patrick Muyaya even claimed the group was “dead,” calling it “Rwandan proxies.”

Yet behind the scenes, intense diplomatic pressure has cornered the regime. This week, Kinshasa will sign the Doha protocols with AFC/M23, a set of five detailed agreements that include implementation roadmaps and monitoring mechanisms designed to prevent backtracking.

In parallel, Washington is pressing Tshisekedi to finalize the Regional Economic Integration Framework (REIF) with Rwanda, a key pillar of the peace roadmap brokered last July. Tshisekedi’s delegation had previously walked away without signing, but this time there is no escape. The agreements are expected to be ratified by Tshisekedi and President Kagame, possibly on 13 November at the White House.

Tshisekedi is known for never honoring any agreement he signs.

This time, however there may be a real cost for that. The Doha deal includes enforcement mechanisms, and a timeline that will hold the regime accountable.

If Kinshasa falters, AFC/M23 leaders have hinted they will “implement it by themselves, “by force if necessary.”

The Kinshasa regime media and officials like to treat citizens as fools. For months Muyaya has insisted that “the AFC/M23 is dead,” echoing Kinshasa’s efforts to minimize the movement’s legitimacy, and propagandistically calling them Rwanda’s proxies.

Those lies have worn thin.

Behind the scenes, Tshisekedi and his foreign minister Therese Kayikwamba are now in Doha officially attending the World Summit on Social Development, but primarily seeking political cover while attempting to manipulate the mediators. They are whining about Rwanda as usual. That won’t change a thing.

They better learn to be serious.